Unvig › Today's board › 10 September 2026
PSV, Manchester Utd and Bayern Munich: the real numbers behind today’s prices
PSV host Shakhtar Donetsk, with the market making the home side 66.3%; Manchester Utd are 85.0% against Sabah Baku; Bayern Munich are 88.0% against Bodo/Glimt; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
PSV v Shakhtar Donetsk
EUROPE: Champions League - League phase · 16:45 UTC
PSV host Shakhtar Donetsk in Champions League - League phase, kick-off 16:45 UTC. The market makes PSV 66.3% to win it, the draw 18.7%, and the other side 15.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.9% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 67.8% and both teams to score at 59.7%. Read next to a 66.3% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| PSV | 66.3% |
| Draw | 18.7% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 15.0% |
Manchester Utd v Sabah Baku
EUROPE: Champions League - League phase · 19:00 UTC
Manchester Utd host Sabah Baku in Champions League - League phase, kick-off 19:00 UTC. The market makes Manchester Utd 85.0% to win it, the draw 11.7%, and the other side 3.3%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
| Manchester Utd | 85.0% |
| Draw | 11.7% |
| Sabah Baku | 3.3% |
Bayern Munich v Bodo/Glimt
EUROPE: Champions League - League phase · 19:00 UTC
Bayern Munich host Bodo/Glimt in Champions League - League phase, kick-off 19:00 UTC. The market makes Bayern Munich 88.0% to win it, the draw 7.0%, and the other side 4.9%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.6% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 86.4% and both teams to score at 58.9%. Read next to a 88.0% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Bayern Munich | 88.0% |
| Draw | 7.0% |
| Bodo/Glimt | 4.9% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.