Unvig › Today's board › 9 September 2026
Palmeiras, Pyramids and Arsenal: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Palmeiras host LDU Quito, with the market making the home side 75.7%; Pyramids are 65.8% against El Gouna; Arsenal are 57.0% against Napoli; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Palmeiras v LDU Quito
SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs · 22:00 UTC
Palmeiras host LDU Quito in Copa Libertadores - Play Offs, kick-off 22:00 UTC. The market makes Palmeiras (Bra) 75.7% to win it, the draw 17.1%, and the other side 7.2%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 6.2% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 49.6%. Read next to a 75.7% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Palmeiras (Bra) | 75.7% |
| Draw | 17.1% |
| LDU Quito (Ecu) | 7.2% |
Pyramids v El Gouna
EGYPT: Premier League · 14:00 UTC
Pyramids host El Gouna in Premier League, kick-off 14:00 UTC. The market makes Pyramids 65.8% to win it, the draw 24.0%, and the other side 10.1%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.7% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 38.7%. Read next to a 65.8% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Pyramids | 65.8% |
| Draw | 24.0% |
| El Gouna | 10.1% |
Napoli v Arsenal
EUROPE: Champions League - League phase · 19:00 UTC
Napoli host Arsenal in Champions League - League phase, kick-off 19:00 UTC. The market makes Arsenal 57.0% to win it, the draw 25.1%, and the other side 18.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.6% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 49.5%. Read next to a 57.0% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Napoli | 18.0% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
| Arsenal | 57.0% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.