Unvig › Today's board › 4 September 2026
Hannover, Lyon and Galatasaray: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Hannover host Karlsruher SC, with the market making the home side 56.9%; Lyon are 64.1% against Auxerre; Galatasaray are 59.1% against Basaksehir; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Hannover v Karlsruher SC
GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga · 16:30 UTC
Hannover host Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga, kick-off 16:30 UTC. The market makes Hannover 56.9% to win it, the draw 24.0%, and the other side 19.1%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.0% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 66.7% and both teams to score at 65.8%. Read next to a 56.9% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Hannover | 56.9% |
| Draw | 24.0% |
| Karlsruher SC | 19.1% |
Lyon v Auxerre
FRANCE: Ligue 1 · 17:00 UTC
Lyon host Auxerre in Ligue 1, kick-off 17:00 UTC. The market makes Lyon 64.1% to win it, the draw 20.9%, and the other side 15.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 57.5% and both teams to score at 53.0%. Read next to a 64.1% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Lyon | 64.1% |
| Draw | 20.9% |
| Auxerre | 15.0% |
Basaksehir v Galatasaray
TURKEY: Super Lig · 17:00 UTC
Basaksehir host Galatasaray in Super Lig, kick-off 17:00 UTC. The market makes Galatasaray 59.1% to win it, the draw 21.6%, and the other side 19.3%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.3% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 64.2% and both teams to score at 62.4%. Read next to a 59.1% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Basaksehir | 19.3% |
| Draw | 21.6% |
| Galatasaray | 59.1% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.