Football · 26 August 2026
AEK Athens, Gangwon and Real Madrid: the real numbers behind today’s prices
AEK Athens host Levski Sofia, with the market making the home side 64.2%; Gangwon are 63.3% against Gwangju FC; Real Madrid are 73.8% against Real Sociedad; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
AEK Athens v Levski Sofia
EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · 19:00 UTC
AEK Athens host Levski Sofia in Champions League - Qualification, kick-off 19:00 UTC. The market makes AEK Athens (Gre) 64.2% to win it, the draw 22.6%, and the other side 13.2%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.1% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 46.0% and both teams to score at 43.0%. Read next to a 64.2% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| AEK Athens (Gre) | 64.2% |
| Draw | 22.6% |
| Levski Sofia (Bul) | 13.2% |
Gangwon v Gwangju FC
SOUTH KOREA: K League 1 · 10:30 UTC
Gangwon host Gwangju FC in K League 1, kick-off 10:30 UTC. The market makes Gangwon 63.3% to win it, the draw 23.0%, and the other side 13.7%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.7% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 46.1% and both teams to score at 43.6%. Read next to a 63.3% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Gangwon | 63.3% |
| Draw | 23.0% |
| Gwangju FC | 13.7% |
Real Madrid v Real Sociedad
SPAIN: LaLiga · 19:00 UTC
Real Madrid host Real Sociedad in LaLiga, kick-off 19:00 UTC. The market makes Real Madrid 73.8% to win it, the draw 15.7%, and the other side 10.4%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 67.0% and both teams to score at 46.5%. Read next to a 73.8% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Real Madrid | 73.8% |
| Draw | 15.7% |
| Real Sociedad | 10.4% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.