An hour before kick-off
Your heart says they win tonight.
Your bookmaker has a number. Now you can see it.
You know the feeling. The match is on, you have picked your bet, and something in you says this one is right. Maybe it is. But only one side of that counter actually knows.
They worked out the real chance before they printed a single odd. Then they buried it under their own profit and handed you one number. We dig it back out and put it in front of you — for your team, and for every other match on tonight’s board.
You still decide. We just make sure you are not deciding blind.
Free to look at, no account needed · what we refuse to sell
Why this exists
Part chance, part their profit.
One number, no way to tell them apart.
Your bookmaker knows the real chance. It is the first thing they work out — before a single odd goes up, for a Champions League final and for a Tuesday night game in Bolivia alike.
Then they add their own cut on top, blend the two together, and hand you one number. That number is the only thing you have ever seen.
We take their cut back out and give you what is underneath: the real chance, on its own. Then we show you exactly how big the cut was, so you can see what you were being charged.
No picks. No systems. No tips. We will never tell you what to back — that part is yours, and anyone who claims otherwise is selling you something.
Home, draw, away — one of them happens, so it can only add up to 100. The extra 6 is theirs.
Live sample — free tier
Every match. The real chance on each one.
How to read it — 30 seconds
- Find your match. Search a team name, or filter by day and league.
- Read the percentage. That is the real chance, with the bookmaker’s profit already removed. 80.4% means it happens 8 times out of 10.
- Check the little m badge. That is how much the bookmaker was charging on that match. Small is good for you.
- Tap any number to save the bet or get a reminder when the match kicks off.
The tabs across the top change what you are looking at — goals, corners, first half, and so on. Everything you see is free today; the rest of the board is for members.
All of them with the paid plan.
One caveat worth knowing. On big underdogs — anything under roughly 10% — home/draw/away percentages run slightly high, a long-documented quirk of how these markets are priced. Everything else on this screen is unaffected. If you bet longshots often, the All handicaps tab gives you the same match through a market that does not have this quirk.
Your dashboard
Click any percentage in the table to set an alert or log a bet on it.
Saved presets
Bet history
Press ＋ on any row in the table to record a bet. Stake and odds are optional — leave them empty to track the price only. P/L is your actual money. Δ pp is not: it compares your entry percentage against the closing one, which measures your timing, not your profit.
Shortcuts one rule, two uses — see it now, or be told when it happens
🔔 sends a desktop notification while Unvig is open in a tab. Each match alerts once a day.
What you actually get
Three jobs, done for you.
Things a careful bettor does by hand every evening. Here, each one takes a single click.
From 250 matches to the handful you care about
Tap Best home, Over 2.5 or Corners over 9.5 — one of ten ready-made shortcuts — and the table keeps only the matches that fit, best ones first. Prefer your own rule? Pick any market and any range, and we show you what falls inside it.
That last one — “show me everything between 60 and 70 percent” — is a question almost no other site lets you ask.
Tap a number. That is the whole thing.
Every percentage already knows its match, its market and its current price, so there is no form to fill in. Tap it and you get two choices: keep a record of the bet, or get a nudge when the match starts.
The reminder needs no setting up. No thresholds to guess at, no theory to understand. It simply tells you the game is about to begin.
Find out whether your method actually works
Anything you log is settled for you and kept with the stake, the odds, the profit or loss, your hit rate and your return. Plus the one number hardly anyone tracks: whether the price you took beat the price at kick-off.
That number measures your timing, not your luck. Over enough bets it is the honest answer to “am I actually any good at this?”
Built for patience, not for tips
We will never tell you what to back, and we will never claim this makes you money. What you get is the reference price professionals measure themselves against, a fast way to cut a full day of football down to the games that fit your rules, and a record honest enough to tell you when your method is not working.
The patience and the method are yours to bring. If you have them, what you need is an accurate number and a way to keep score. That is exactly — and only — what this is.
Nothing hidden
How we work it out
Say a game is a genuine coin flip. A fair price would be 2.00 on each side. Your bookmaker offers 1.91. That small difference is their cut — it works out at 4.8%, and it is there whether you win or lose. We do the sum that takes it back out, and show you what is left: 50%, not 52.4%. Next to every number on this site you can see how big that cut was.
That is the whole idea. If you want to see the arithmetic itself, it is right below — we have nothing to hide behind.
A bookmaker’s raw prices always include a margin. Take a perfectly balanced market: 1.91 / 1.91. Raw, that implies 52.4% / 52.4% — a total of 104.8%, which is impossible.
We remove the margin mathematically and publish what remains: the market’s honest estimate. 1.91 / 1.91 becomes 50.0% / 50.0%, margin 4.8%.
That number — not the price — is the reference. Compare your own estimate against it, or check what other bookmakers are charging you for the same event.
The method is named, not implied. We use equal-margin de-vigging: every raw probability is divided by the total. The balanced example above is the one case where every method agrees — on a lopsided market, the alternatives return different answers from identical prices. A product whose whole claim is “the real percentage” cannot leave that unsaid.
One sentence of honesty: matching the market’s accuracy is not enough to profit — a bettor who beat the closing price in every single game of a season still wins only slightly over 51%, below the 52.4% break-even.
Coverage
What you can look at
What this is not
What we will never do
- No picks. We will not tell you what to bet. There is no signal here, no tip, no system.
- No promises. Nobody has a machine that turns public prices into money. We are not going to pretend we do.
- We are not a bookmaker. We take no bets, hold none of your money, and have no relationship with anyone who does.
- No hidden referrals. We earn nothing when you bet. There is no operator advertising here, and there never will be.
- Not advice. Data and analysis, for information. The decision stays yours.
Pricing
One price. Everything shown.
Free
€0/forever
- Every market family, fully de-vigged
- 20% of each day’s matches
- Big and small competitions, mixed
- Shareable filter links
Monthly
€19.99/month
- Everything in Free
- All matches a day, all leagues
- Unlimited shortcuts & saved filters
- Kick-off alerts on any match
- Bet history with stake, odds, P/L and ROI
- Closing-line comparison on every bet
- CSV export
After subscribing, create an account here using the same email address you paid with. Your access unlocks automatically.
7-day money-back guarantee. Cancel anytime.
FAQ
Questions people ask
What do I get for free?
20% of each day’s matches, chosen deliberately across both major competitions and smaller ones — so you can see the real breadth of the coverage, not just the leagues everyone prices. Every market family is included on those matches, at the same freshness subscribers get. Members see all of them.
Are you affiliated with the bookmaker whose markets you show?
No. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any bookmaker. We display publicly shown market data for analytical purposes only.
Why percentages instead of odds?
Because the probability is the information. A price is only a probability wearing a costume, and the margin is usually hidden inside it. We show the number the price encodes — and the margin separately.
I just subscribed — how do I get access?
Create an account here using the same email address you paid with. Your subscription is matched by email, so access unlocks the moment you sign up — nothing to enter, no code to redeem. Used a different address by mistake? Email support@unvig.com and we will move it across.
What happens when I cancel?
You keep access until the end of the paid period. No lock-in. Saved filters are yours to export before the period ends.
Can this make me money?
No product can promise that, and we refuse to. What it can do: show you the market's true probability before you bet, and measure whether you beat the closing line — for your own records.