Football probabilities · every match on today’s board
Your bookmaker works out the true chance first, then hides their profit inside the odds and hands you one number. We take the profit back out and publish what is underneath, as a plain percentage — on every game playing today.
No tips. No picks. Nobody telling you what to back. Just the number the professionals price against, and the tools to actually use it.
No account needed · 20% of every day free, forever · no affiliate links, ever
What you get
The work a careful bettor does by hand every evening — the real number, the cut, the movement, the record — done for you, on every match on the board.
Home, draw, away. Asian handicaps. Over and under on goals, corners and cards. Both teams to score. First half. Team totals. Every one of them stripped of the margin and shown as a plain percentage you can read at a glance.
80.4% means it happens eight times out of ten. That is the whole reading lesson.
Every match carries a small m badge: the exact margin that was built into that market before we removed it. A 2% cut and a 9% cut look identical on a betting slip. Here they do not.
It is the one number that tells you how much a price is really costing you.
See where a probability opened and where it stands now, with an arrow on every cell that has moved. Sort the entire day by the biggest movers and you find, in one click, the games the money is actually reacting to.
Steam on a Tuesday night in the Danish second tier is worth more than any tipster’s opinion.
Tap any percentage to log the bet or to be nudged at kick-off. Everything you log is settled for you and kept with the stake, the odds, the profit or loss, your strike rate and your return — plus the number hardly anyone tracks: whether your price beat the closing line.
That last one measures your timing, not your luck. It is the honest answer to “am I any good at this?”
Everything above is a filter away. Pick a market and a range — “show me every match between 60 and 70 percent on the home win” — and every game become the handful that fit your rules. Save the filter, share the link, come back to it tomorrow.
Try it on today’s matchesWhy this exists
Your bookmaker knows the real chance. It is the first thing they work out — before a single odd goes up, for a Champions League final and for a Tuesday night game in Bolivia alike.
Then they add their own cut on top, blend the two together, and hand you one number. That number is the only thing you have ever seen.
We take their cut back out and give you what is underneath: the real chance, on its own. Then we show you exactly how big the cut was, so you can see what you were being charged.
No picks. No systems. No tips. We will never tell you what to back — that part is yours, and anyone who claims otherwise is selling you something.
Home, draw, away — one of them happens, so it can only add up to 100. The extra 6 is theirs.
Live sample — free tier
How to read it — 30 seconds
The tabs across the top change what you are looking at — goals, corners, first half, and so on. Everything you see is free today; the rest of the board is for members.
One caveat worth knowing. On big underdogs — anything under roughly 10% — home/draw/away percentages run slightly high, a long-documented quirk of how these markets are priced. Everything else on this screen is unaffected. If you bet longshots often, the All handicaps tab gives you the same match through a market that does not have this quirk.
Click any percentage in the table to set an alert or log a bet on it.
Press ＋ on any row in the table to record a bet. Stake and odds are optional — leave them empty to track the price only. P/L is your actual money. Δ pp is not: it compares your entry percentage against the closing one, which measures your timing, not your profit.
🔔 sends a desktop notification while Unvig is open in a tab. Each match alerts once a day.
We will never tell you what to back, and we will never claim this makes you money. What you get is the reference price professionals measure themselves against, a fast way to cut a full day of football down to the games that fit your rules, and a record honest enough to tell you when your method is not working.
The patience and the method are yours to bring. If you have them, what you need is an accurate number and a way to keep score. That is exactly — and only — what this is.
Nothing hidden
Say a game is a genuine coin flip. A fair price would be 2.00 on each side. Your bookmaker offers 1.91. That small difference is their cut — it works out at 4.8%, and it is there whether you win or lose. We do the sum that takes it back out, and show you what is left: 50%, not 52.4%. Next to every number on this site you can see how big that cut was.
That is the whole idea. If you want to see the arithmetic itself, it is right below — we have nothing to hide behind.
A bookmaker’s raw prices always include a margin. Take a perfectly balanced market: 1.91 / 1.91. Raw, that implies 52.4% / 52.4% — a total of 104.8%, which is impossible.
We remove the margin mathematically and publish what remains: the market’s honest estimate. 1.91 / 1.91 becomes 50.0% / 50.0%, margin 4.8%.
That number — not the price — is the reference. Compare your own estimate against it, or check what other bookmakers are charging you for the same event.
The method is named, not implied. We use equal-margin de-vigging: every raw probability is divided by the total. The balanced example above is the one case where every method agrees — on a lopsided market, the alternatives return different answers from identical prices. A product whose whole claim is “the real percentage” cannot leave that unsaid.
One sentence of honesty: matching the market’s accuracy is not enough to profit — a bettor who beat the closing price in every single game of a season still wins only slightly over 51%, below the 52.4% break-even.
Coverage
What this is not
Pricing
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FAQ
20% of each day’s matches, chosen deliberately across both major competitions and smaller ones — so you can see the real breadth of the coverage, not just the leagues everyone prices. Every market family is included on those matches, at the same freshness subscribers get. Members see all of them.
No. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any bookmaker. We display publicly shown market data for analytical purposes only.
Because the probability is the information. A price is only a probability wearing a costume, and the margin is usually hidden inside it. We show the number the price encodes — and the margin separately.
Create an account here using the same email address you paid with. Your subscription is matched by email, so access unlocks the moment you sign up — nothing to enter, no code to redeem. Used a different address by mistake? Email support@unvig.com and we will move it across.
You keep access until the end of the paid period. No lock-in. Saved filters are yours to export before the period ends.
No product can promise that, and we refuse to. What it can do: show you the market's true probability before you bet, and measure whether you beat the closing line — for your own records.