Watch: what the real chance is, and how to find it on any match — under 2 minutes
For football bettors · live, all day
Unvig is a table. We take the odds of the sharpest bookmaker in the world — the one professionals use as their reference — remove the bookmaker’s cut, and show you what is left: the real chance, as a plain percentage. Hundreds of matches a day, 20+ markets on each: match result, goals, both teams to score, handicaps, corners, cards.
Put your own odds next to our percentage and you see what your bet is really costing you. Nothing to type in: every match of the day is already worked out.
No tips, no picks: the decision is always yours · 20% of every day free, forever · no affiliate links, ever
How it works, in three steps
What you get
The work a careful bettor does by hand every evening — the real number, the cut, the movement, the record — done for you, on every match in the table.
Home, draw, away. Asian handicaps. Over and under on goals, corners and cards. Both teams to score. First half. Team totals. Every one of them stripped of the margin and shown as a plain percentage you can read at a glance.
80.4% means it happens eight times out of ten. That is the whole reading lesson.
Every match carries a small m badge: the exact margin that was built into that market before we removed it. A 2% cut and a 9% cut look identical on a betting slip. Here they do not.
Your own bookmaker may charge more. Put its odds into the no-vig calculator and you see exactly how much.
See where a probability opened and where it stands now, with an arrow on every cell that has moved. Sort the entire day by the biggest movers and you find, in one click, the games the money is actually reacting to.
See which matches the market has changed its mind about since this morning.
Tap any percentage to log the bet or to be nudged at kick-off. Everything you log is settled for you and kept with the stake, the odds, the profit or loss, your strike rate and your return — plus the number hardly anyone tracks: whether your price beat the closing line.
That last one measures your timing, not your luck. It is the honest answer to “am I any good at this?”
Everything above is a filter away. Pick a market and a range — “show me every match between 60 and 70 percent on the home win” — and every game become the handful that fit your rules. Save the filter, share the link, come back to it tomorrow.
Try it on today’s matchesWhy this exists
Your bookmaker knows the real chance. It is the first thing they work out — before a single odd goes up, for a Champions League final and for a Tuesday night game in Bolivia alike.
Then they add their own cut on top, blend the two together, and hand you one number. That number is the only thing you have ever seen.
We take the prices of the sharpest bookmaker in the world, remove their cut, and give you what is underneath: the real chance, on its own. Hold your own bookmaker’s odds against it and you see how much extra you are being charged.
No picks. No systems. No tips. We will never tell you what to back — that part is yours, and anyone who claims otherwise is selling you something.
Home, draw, away — one of them happens, so it can only add up to 100. The extra 6 is theirs.
Live table · free, no account
How to read it — 30 seconds
The tabs across the top change what you are looking at — goals, corners, first half, and so on. Everything you see is free today; the rest of the table is for members.
One caveat. On big underdogs (under about 10%), home/draw/away percentages run slightly high — a well-known quirk of these markets. For those, the All handicaps tab shows the same match without it.
Click any percentage in the table to set an alert or log a bet on it.
Press ＋ on any row in the table to record a bet. Stake and odds are optional — leave them empty to track the price only. P/L is your actual money. Δ pp is not: it compares your entry percentage against the closing one, which measures your timing, not your profit.
🔔 sends a desktop notification while Unvig is open in a tab. Each match alerts once a day.
We will never tell you what to back, and we will never claim this makes you money. What you get is the reference price professionals measure themselves against, a fast way to cut a full day of football down to the games that fit your rules, and a record honest enough to tell you when your method is not working.
The patience and the method are yours to bring. If you have them, what you need is an accurate number and a way to keep score. That is exactly — and only — what this is.
Nothing hidden
Say a game is a genuine coin flip. A fair price would be 2.00 on each side. Your bookmaker offers 1.91. That small difference is their cut — it works out at 4.8%, and it is there whether you win or lose. We do the sum that takes it back out, and show you what is left: 50%, not 52.4%. Next to every number on this site you can see how big that cut was.
That is the whole idea. If you want to see the arithmetic itself, it is right below — we have nothing to hide behind.
A bookmaker’s raw prices always include a margin. Take a perfectly balanced market: 1.91 / 1.91. Raw, that implies 52.4% / 52.4% — a total of 104.8%, which is impossible.
We remove the margin mathematically and publish what remains: the market’s honest estimate. 1.91 / 1.91 becomes 50.0% / 50.0%, margin 4.8%.
That number — not the price — is the reference. Compare your own estimate against it, or check what other bookmakers are charging you for the same event.
The method is named, not implied. We use equal-margin de-vigging: every raw probability is divided by the total. The balanced example above is the one case where every method agrees — on a lopsided market, the alternatives return different answers from identical prices. A product whose whole claim is “the real percentage” cannot leave that unsaid.
One sentence of honesty: matching the market’s accuracy is not enough to profit — a bettor who beat the closing price in every single game of a season still wins only slightly over 51%, below the 52.4% break-even.
Coverage
What this is not
Pricing
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FAQ
A table of every upcoming football match with the real chance of each bet: the sharpest bookmaker’s odds with the bookmaker’s cut removed, shown as plain percentages. You hold your own odds against it; we never tell you what to bet.
20% of each day’s matches, chosen deliberately across both major competitions and smaller ones — so you can see the real breadth of the coverage, not just the leagues everyone prices. Every market family is included on those matches, at the same freshness subscribers get. Members see all of them.
No. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any bookmaker. We display publicly shown market data for analytical purposes only.
Because the probability is the information. A price is only a probability wearing a costume, and the margin is usually hidden inside it. We show the number the price encodes — and the margin separately.
Create an account here using the same email address you paid with. Your subscription is matched by email, so access unlocks the moment you sign up — nothing to enter, no code to redeem. Used a different address by mistake? Email support@unvig.com and we will move it across.
You keep access until the end of the paid period. No lock-in. Saved filters are yours to export before the period ends.
No product can promise that, and we refuse to. What it can do: show you the market's true probability before you bet, and measure whether you beat the closing line — for your own records.