Unvig › Today's board › 28 August 2026
AC Milan, CSKA Moscow and Groningen: the real numbers behind today’s prices
AC Milan host Venezia, with the market making the home side 65.3%; CSKA Moscow are 57.8% against Akron Togliatti; Groningen are 62.1% against Sittard; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
AC Milan v Venezia
ITALY: Serie A · 18:45 UTC
AC Milan host Venezia in Serie A, kick-off 18:45 UTC. The market makes AC Milan 65.3% to win it, the draw 21.6%, and the other side 13.1%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 53.4% and both teams to score at 47.1%. Read next to a 65.3% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| AC Milan | 65.3% |
| Draw | 21.6% |
| Venezia | 13.1% |
Akron Togliatti v CSKA Moscow
RUSSIA: Premier League · 15:00 UTC
Akron Togliatti host CSKA Moscow in Premier League, kick-off 15:00 UTC. The market makes CSKA Moscow 57.8% to win it, the draw 22.6%, and the other side 19.6%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.7% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 60.2% and both teams to score at 60.1%. Read next to a 57.8% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Akron Togliatti | 19.6% |
| Draw | 22.6% |
| CSKA Moscow | 57.8% |
Groningen v Sittard
NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · 18:00 UTC
Groningen host Sittard in Eredivisie, kick-off 18:00 UTC. The market makes Groningen 62.1% to win it, the draw 20.2%, and the other side 17.7%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.4% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 67.4% and both teams to score at 62.3%. Read next to a 62.1% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Groningen | 62.1% |
| Draw | 20.2% |
| Sittard | 17.7% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.