Unvig › Today's board › 6 October 2026
Slovakia, Iceland and Kazakhstan: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Moldova host Slovakia, with the market making the home side 11.0%; Iceland are 60.4% against Estonia; Kazakhstan are 36.6% against Faroe Islands; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Moldova v Slovakia
EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League C · 18:45 UTC
Moldova host Slovakia in UEFA Nations League - League C, kick-off 18:45 UTC. The market makes Slovakia 69.4% to win it, the draw 19.6%, and the other side 11.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.5% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 53.7% and both teams to score at 45.0%. Read next to a 69.4% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Moldova | 11.0% |
| Draw | 19.6% |
| Slovakia | 69.4% |
Estonia v Iceland
EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League C · 18:45 UTC
Estonia host Iceland in UEFA Nations League - League C, kick-off 18:45 UTC. The market makes Iceland 60.4% to win it, the draw 23.5%, and the other side 16.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.4% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 50.2% and both teams to score at 48.5%. Read next to a 60.4% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Estonia | 16.0% |
| Draw | 23.5% |
| Iceland | 60.4% |
Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands
EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League C · 14:00 UTC
Kazakhstan host Faroe Islands in UEFA Nations League - League C, kick-off 14:00 UTC. The market makes Kazakhstan 36.6% to win it, the draw 32.9%, and the other side 30.6%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.9% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 35.5% and both teams to score at 44.6%. Read next to a 36.6% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Kazakhstan | 36.6% |
| Draw | 32.9% |
| Faroe Islands | 30.6% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.