Unvig › Today's board › 4 October 2026
Las Palmas, Ponferradina and Puerto Rico: the real numbers behind today’s prices
the house’s cut runs from $3.3 to $15.0 per $100 staked; Ponferradina v Mirandes is priced level to within 0.4 points; Puerto Rico are the day’s shortest price at 87.3%; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
What the bet actually costs
The cost of placing a bet is not the same across the board, and almost nobody checks it. Stake $100 on Cipolletti v Sol de America and the house keeps $15.0 of it before a ball is kicked.
The same $100 on Las Palmas v Valladolid costs you $3.3. Same stake, same sport, 4.6x the fee — and it appears on no slip and in no confirmation email.
| Las Palmas — Valladolid | $3 |
| Cipolletti — Sol de America | $15 |
The one nobody can call
SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 · 14:30 UTC
Ponferradina against Mirandes is the closest thing to a coin flip on the board. 34.9% one way, 35.3% the other, 0.4 points between them once the margin is stripped out.
That is not indecision. These prices are set by traders moving real money on them, and when they cannot separate two sides, the honest reading is that the fixture is a toss-up. A tipster would still pick one. The price does not.
| Ponferradina | 34.9% |
| Draw | 29.9% |
| Mirandes | 35.3% |
The shortest price of the day
NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA: CONCACAF Nations League - League B · 22:00 UTC
Puerto Rico are the biggest favourite on today’s list at 87.3%. In Puerto Rico v Cayman Islands, that reads like a formality.
It is not one. At that price, roughly 1 in every ten matches finish another way. The distance between 75% and 90% feels like nothing when you are looking at a short price, and it is the whole difference between a heavy favourite and something close to a certainty.
| Puerto Rico | 87.3% |
| Draw | 7.5% |
| Cayman Islands | 5.2% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.