Unvig › Today's board › 29 September 2026
Slovakia, Finland and Faroe Islands: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Slovakia host Kazakhstan, with the market making the home side 75.7%; Finland are 60.0% against Belarus; Faroe Islands are 34.5% against Moldova; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Slovakia v Kazakhstan
EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League C · 18:45 UTC
Slovakia host Kazakhstan in UEFA Nations League - League C, kick-off 18:45 UTC. The market makes Slovakia 75.7% to win it, the draw 16.6%, and the other side 7.7%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.0% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 52.3% and both teams to score at 36.9%. Read next to a 75.7% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Slovakia | 75.7% |
| Draw | 16.6% |
| Kazakhstan | 7.7% |
Finland v Belarus
EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League C · 16:00 UTC
Finland host Belarus in UEFA Nations League - League C, kick-off 16:00 UTC. The market makes Finland 60.0% to win it, the draw 24.9%, and the other side 15.1%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.0% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 42.8% and both teams to score at 43.0%. Read next to a 60.0% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Finland | 60.0% |
| Draw | 24.9% |
| Belarus | 15.1% |
Moldova v Faroe Islands
EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League C · 16:00 UTC
Moldova host Faroe Islands in UEFA Nations League - League C, kick-off 16:00 UTC. The market makes Faroe Islands 34.5% to win it, the draw 33.4%, and the other side 32.1%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.4% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 35.7% and both teams to score at 45.2%. Read next to a 34.5% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Moldova | 32.1% |
| Draw | 33.4% |
| Faroe Islands | 34.5% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.