Unvig › Today's board › 30 September 2026
Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Penarol: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Bahrain host Yemen, with the market making the home side 58.1%; United Arab Emirates are 59.2% against Qatar; Penarol are 39.4% against Montevideo City; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Bahrain v Yemen
ASIA: Arabian Gulf Cup · 17:30 UTC
Bahrain host Yemen in Arabian Gulf Cup, kick-off 17:30 UTC. The market makes Bahrain 58.1% to win it, the draw 25.0%, and the other side 16.9%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.4% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 43.0% and both teams to score at 43.1%. Read next to a 58.1% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Bahrain | 58.1% |
| Draw | 25.0% |
| Yemen | 16.9% |
United Arab Emirates v Qatar
ASIA: Arabian Gulf Cup · 17:30 UTC
United Arab Emirates host Qatar in Arabian Gulf Cup, kick-off 17:30 UTC. The market makes United Arab Emirates 59.2% to win it, the draw 22.8%, and the other side 18.1%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.5% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 48.9% and both teams to score at 48.3%. Read next to a 59.2% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| United Arab Emirates | 59.2% |
| Draw | 22.8% |
| Qatar | 18.1% |
Montevideo City v Penarol
URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura · 23:00 UTC
Montevideo City host Penarol in Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura, kick-off 23:00 UTC. The market makes Penarol 39.4% to win it, the draw 28.0%, and the other side 32.6%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.4% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 46.4%. Read next to a 39.4% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Montevideo City | 32.6% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Penarol | 39.4% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.