Unvig › Today's board › 22 September 2026
Arsenal W, Al Urooba and MK Dons: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Arsenal W host Koge W, with the market making the home side 88.2%; Al Urooba are 62.7% against Dubai City; MK Dons are 62.3% against Crawley; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Arsenal W v Koge W
EUROPE: UEFA Champions League Women - League phase · 19:00 UTC
Arsenal W host Koge W in UEFA Champions League Women - League phase, kick-off 19:00 UTC. The market makes Arsenal W 88.2% to win it, the draw 8.0%, and the other side 3.8%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 6.9% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 72.3% and both teams to score at 35.1%. Read next to a 88.2% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Arsenal W | 88.2% |
| Draw | 8.0% |
| Koge W | 3.8% |
Al Urooba v Dubai City
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Presidents Cup · 14:40 UTC
Al Urooba host Dubai City in Presidents Cup, kick-off 14:40 UTC. The market makes Al Urooba 62.7% to win it, the draw 21.9%, and the other side 15.4%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 9.2% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
| Al Urooba | 62.7% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Dubai City | 15.4% |
MK Dons v Crawley
ENGLAND: EFL Trophy · 18:00 UTC
MK Dons host Crawley in EFL Trophy, kick-off 18:00 UTC. The market makes MK Dons 62.3% to win it, the draw 20.4%, and the other side 17.3%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 7.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 67.2%. Read next to a 62.3% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| MK Dons | 62.3% |
| Draw | 20.4% |
| Crawley | 17.3% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.