Unvig › Today's board › 21 September 2026
Petrzalka, Stuttgart W and Spezia: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Petrzalka host Pohronie, with the market making the home side 60.6%; Stuttgart W are 58.3% against Werder Bremen W; Spezia are 75.4% against Vis Pesaro; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Petrzalka v Pohronie
SLOVAKIA: 2. liga · 15:00 UTC
Petrzalka host Pohronie in 2. liga, kick-off 15:00 UTC. The market makes Petrzalka 60.6% to win it, the draw 21.8%, and the other side 17.6%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 9.3% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 57.7% and both teams to score at 53.7%. Read next to a 60.6% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Petrzalka | 60.6% |
| Draw | 21.8% |
| Pohronie | 17.6% |
Werder Bremen W v Stuttgart W
GERMANY: Bundesliga Women · 16:00 UTC
Werder Bremen W host Stuttgart W in Bundesliga Women, kick-off 16:00 UTC. The market makes Stuttgart W 58.3% to win it, the draw 21.1%, and the other side 20.5%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.6% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
| Werder Bremen W | 20.5% |
| Draw | 21.1% |
| Stuttgart W | 58.3% |
Spezia v Vis Pesaro
ITALY: Serie C - Group B · 18:30 UTC
Spezia host Vis Pesaro in Serie C - Group B, kick-off 18:30 UTC. The market makes Spezia 75.4% to win it, the draw 15.8%, and the other side 8.8%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 8.1% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 60.4%. Read next to a 75.4% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Spezia | 75.4% |
| Draw | 15.8% |
| Vis Pesaro | 8.8% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.