Unvig › Today's board › 17 September 2026
Betis, Hoffenheim and Crystal Palace: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Betis host Getafe, with the market making the home side 57.4%; Hoffenheim are 68.5% against OFI Crete; Crystal Palace are 69.4% against Lech Poznan; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Betis v Getafe
SPAIN: LaLiga · 17:00 UTC
Betis host Getafe in LaLiga, kick-off 17:00 UTC. The market makes Betis 57.4% to win it, the draw 25.7%, and the other side 17.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.7% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 44.0% and both teams to score at 45.2%. Read next to a 57.4% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Betis | 57.4% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Getafe | 17.0% |
OFI Crete v Hoffenheim
EUROPE: Europa League - League phase · 16:45 UTC
OFI Crete host Hoffenheim in Europa League - League phase, kick-off 16:45 UTC. The market makes Hoffenheim 68.5% to win it, the draw 18.8%, and the other side 12.7%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.5% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 61.7% and both teams to score at 53.7%. Read next to a 68.5% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| OFI Crete | 12.7% |
| Draw | 18.8% |
| Hoffenheim | 68.5% |
Crystal Palace v Lech Poznan
EUROPE: Europa League - League phase · 19:00 UTC
Crystal Palace host Lech Poznan in Europa League - League phase, kick-off 19:00 UTC. The market makes Crystal Palace 69.4% to win it, the draw 18.0%, and the other side 12.6%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.5% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 60.4% and both teams to score at 51.1%. Read next to a 69.4% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Crystal Palace | 69.4% |
| Draw | 18.0% |
| Lech Poznan | 12.6% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.