Unvig › Today's board › 16 September 2026
Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen and Spartak Moscow: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Barcelona host Racing Santander, with the market making the home side 91.0%; Bayer Leverkusen are 84.9% against Celje; Spartak Moscow are 71.1% against Fakel Voronezh; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Barcelona v Racing Santander
SPAIN: LaLiga · 19:30 UTC
Barcelona host Racing Santander in LaLiga, kick-off 19:30 UTC. The market makes Barcelona 91.0% to win it, the draw 5.1%, and the other side 3.9%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.7% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 87.1% and both teams to score at 52.7%. Read next to a 91.0% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Barcelona | 91.0% |
| Draw | 5.1% |
| Racing Santander | 3.9% |
Bayer Leverkusen v Celje
EUROPE: Europa League - League phase · 19:00 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen host Celje in Europa League - League phase, kick-off 19:00 UTC. The market makes Bayer Leverkusen 84.9% to win it, the draw 9.9%, and the other side 5.2%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.5% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 77.3% and both teams to score at 49.8%. Read next to a 84.9% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Bayer Leverkusen | 84.9% |
| Draw | 9.9% |
| Celje | 5.2% |
Spartak Moscow v Fakel Voronezh
RUSSIA: Premier League · 15:30 UTC
Spartak Moscow host Fakel Voronezh in Premier League, kick-off 15:30 UTC. The market makes Spartak Moscow 71.1% to win it, the draw 18.3%, and the other side 10.7%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.5% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 56.1% and both teams to score at 45.2%. Read next to a 71.1% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Spartak Moscow | 71.1% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Fakel Voronezh | 10.7% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.