Unvig › Today's board › 13 September 2026
Celta Vigo, Heerenveen and Lille: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Celta Vigo host Malaga, with the market making the home side 55.8%; Heerenveen are 58.2% against Telstar; Lille are 67.5% against Troyes; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Celta Vigo v Malaga
SPAIN: LaLiga · 12:00 UTC
Celta Vigo host Malaga in LaLiga, kick-off 12:00 UTC. The market makes Celta Vigo 55.8% to win it, the draw 25.9%, and the other side 18.3%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.6% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 44.9% and both teams to score at 46.5%. Read next to a 55.8% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Celta Vigo | 55.8% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Malaga | 18.3% |
Heerenveen v Telstar
NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · 12:30 UTC
Heerenveen host Telstar in Eredivisie, kick-off 12:30 UTC. The market makes Heerenveen 58.2% to win it, the draw 20.8%, and the other side 20.9%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.4% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 69.0% and both teams to score at 65.3%. Read next to a 58.2% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Heerenveen | 58.2% |
| Draw | 20.8% |
| Telstar | 20.9% |
Lille v Troyes
FRANCE: Ligue 1 · 13:00 UTC
Lille host Troyes in Ligue 1, kick-off 13:00 UTC. The market makes Lille 67.5% to win it, the draw 19.5%, and the other side 13.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 56.3% and both teams to score at 49.6%. Read next to a 67.5% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Lille | 67.5% |
| Draw | 19.5% |
| Troyes | 13.0% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.