Unvig › Today's board › 14 September 2026
Neftchi Fargona, FCSB and AS Roma: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Neftchi Fargona host Al Quwa Al Jawiya, with the market making the home side 59.6%; FCSB are 67.2% against Petrolul; AS Roma are 62.3% against Torino; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Neftchi Fargona v Al Quwa Al Jawiya
ASIA: AFC Champions League - League phase · 13:45 UTC
Neftchi Fargona host Al Quwa Al Jawiya in AFC Champions League - League phase, kick-off 13:45 UTC. The market makes Neftchi Fargona (Uzb) 59.6% to win it, the draw 24.4%, and the other side 16.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.6% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 48.9%. Read next to a 59.6% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Neftchi Fargona (Uzb) | 59.6% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya (Irq) | 16.0% |
FCSB v Petrolul
ROMANIA: Superliga · 18:00 UTC
FCSB host Petrolul in Superliga, kick-off 18:00 UTC. The market makes FCSB 67.2% to win it, the draw 19.8%, and the other side 13.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 5.3% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 57.2% and both teams to score at 50.2%. Read next to a 67.2% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| FCSB | 67.2% |
| Draw | 19.8% |
| Petrolul | 13.0% |
Torino v AS Roma
ITALY: Serie A · 16:30 UTC
Torino host AS Roma in Serie A, kick-off 16:30 UTC. The market makes AS Roma 62.3% to win it, the draw 22.4%, and the other side 15.2%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 55.3% and both teams to score at 52.0%. Read next to a 62.3% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Torino | 15.2% |
| Draw | 22.4% |
| AS Roma | 62.3% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.