Unvig › Today's board › 11 October 2026
Celta Vigo, Lazio and Bologna: the real numbers behind today’s prices
Elche host Celta Vigo, with the market making the home side 32.1%; Lazio are 57.7% against Monza; Bologna are 49.7% against Lecce; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
Elche v Celta Vigo
SPAIN: LaLiga · 12:00 UTC
Elche host Celta Vigo in LaLiga, kick-off 12:00 UTC. The market makes Celta Vigo 38.7% to win it, the draw 29.1%, and the other side 32.1%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.3% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 48.2% and both teams to score at 54.8%. Read next to a 38.7% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Elche | 32.1% |
| Draw | 29.1% |
| Celta Vigo | 38.7% |
Lazio v Monza
ITALY: Serie A · 13:00 UTC
Lazio host Monza in Serie A, kick-off 13:00 UTC. The market makes Lazio 57.7% to win it, the draw 24.3%, and the other side 18.1%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 50.9% and both teams to score at 51.9%. Read next to a 57.7% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Lazio | 57.7% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Monza | 18.1% |
Lecce v Bologna
ITALY: Serie A · 13:00 UTC
Lecce host Bologna in Serie A, kick-off 13:00 UTC. The market makes Bologna 49.7% to win it, the draw 29.3%, and the other side 21.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.6% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 44.4% and both teams to score at 50.8%. Read next to a 49.7% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Lecce | 21.0% |
| Draw | 29.3% |
| Bologna | 49.7% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.