Unvig › Today's board › 9 October 2026
FK Rostov, Aldosivi and Gil Vicente: the real numbers behind today’s prices
FK Rostov host Akron Togliatti, with the market making the home side 49.9%; Aldosivi are 36.2% against Sarmiento Junin; Gil Vicente are 41.5% against Moreirense; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
FK Rostov v Akron Togliatti
RUSSIA: Premier League · 16:30 UTC
FK Rostov host Akron Togliatti in Premier League, kick-off 16:30 UTC. The market makes FK Rostov 49.9% to win it, the draw 26.3%, and the other side 23.8%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 4.1% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 48.2% and both teams to score at 51.2%. Read next to a 49.9% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| FK Rostov | 49.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% |
| Akron Togliatti | 23.8% |
Aldosivi v Sarmiento Junin
ARGENTINA: Liga Profesional - Clausura · 17:30 UTC
Aldosivi host Sarmiento Junin in Liga Profesional - Clausura, kick-off 17:30 UTC. The market makes Aldosivi 36.2% to win it, the draw 31.8%, and the other side 32.0%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.8% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 36.5% and both teams to score at 45.0%. Read next to a 36.2% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Aldosivi | 36.2% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Sarmiento Junin | 32.0% |
Moreirense v Gil Vicente
PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · 17:45 UTC
Moreirense host Gil Vicente in Liga Portugal, kick-off 17:45 UTC. The market makes Gil Vicente 41.5% to win it, the draw 30.2%, and the other side 28.4%.
Those figures will not match the ones on your betting slip, and the reason is margin. This market is priced with a 3.9% cut built into it. Take the cut back out and you are left with what the bookmaker actually believes — which is the table below.
Across the rest of the board, over 2.5 goals sits at 42.5% and both teams to score at 49.6%. Read next to a 41.5% favourite, that is a market pricing a result rather than a shoot-out.
| Moreirense | 28.4% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
| Gil Vicente | 41.5% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.