Unvig › Today’s matches › 11 November 2026
Yokohama F. Marinos and Castellonense: the real numbers behind today’s prices
one price moved by 11.2 points since this morning; the house’s cut runs from $3.5 to $11.1 per $100 staked; Castellonense v La Nucia is priced level to within 0.4 points; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
The price that moved
One market on today’s board moved by 11.2 points. It opened at 46.5% this morning and reads 57.7% now.
A move that size is the market correcting itself — team news, money arriving, or both. Nothing announces it when it happens, and anyone holding the opening price is holding a number the market has already left behind.
| This morning | 46.5% |
| Now | 57.7% |
What the bet actually costs
The cost of placing a bet is not the same across the board, and almost nobody checks it. Stake $100 on Czarni Sosnowiec W v Brann W and the house keeps $11.1 of it before a ball is kicked.
The same $100 on Yokohama F. Marinos v Kashima Antlers costs you $3.5. Same stake, same sport, 3.2x the fee — and it appears on no slip and in no confirmation email.
| Yokohama F. Marinos — Kashima Antlers | $4 |
| Czarni Sosnowiec W — Brann W | $11 |
The one nobody can call
SPAIN: Segunda RFEF - Group 3 · 17:45 UTC
Castellonense against La Nucia is the closest thing to a coin flip on the board. 34.6% one way, 34.2% the other, 0.4 points between them once the margin is stripped out.
That is not indecision. These prices are set by traders moving real money on them, and when they cannot separate two sides, the honest reading is that the fixture is a toss-up. A tipster would still pick one. The price does not.
| Castellonense | 34.6% |
| Draw | 31.1% |
| La Nucia | 34.2% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.