Unvig › Today’s matches › 29 October 2026
Fiorentina, U. Catolica and Andorra: the real numbers behind today’s prices
the house’s cut runs from $3.3 to $12.8 per $100 staked; U. Catolica v LDU Quito is priced level to within 0.5 points; Andorra are the day’s shortest price at 79.7%; every figure below is the bookmakers’ own, with their margin removed.
Every price on a betting app started life as a probability, and was then quietly marked up. What follows is that conversion run backwards on today’s matches, so you can read the chance instead of the odds.
These are not our predictions. They are the bookmakers’ own numbers: the probability implied by the prices they are quoting right now, with the margin they build into those prices taken back out.
What the bet actually costs
The cost of placing a bet is not the same across the board, and almost nobody checks it. Stake $100 on RKAV Volendam v Raalte and the house keeps $12.8 of it before a ball is kicked.
The same $100 on Fiorentina v Atalanta costs you $3.3. Same stake, same sport, 3.9x the fee — and it appears on no slip and in no confirmation email.
| Fiorentina — Atalanta | $3 |
| RKAV Volendam — Raalte | $13 |
The one nobody can call
ECUADOR: Copa Ecuador · 00:00 UTC
U. Catolica against LDU Quito is the closest thing to a coin flip on the board. 33.2% one way, 32.8% the other, 0.5 points between them once the margin is stripped out.
That is not indecision. These prices are set by traders moving real money on them, and when they cannot separate two sides, the honest reading is that the fixture is a toss-up. A tipster would still pick one. The price does not.
| U. Catolica | 33.2% |
| Draw | 34.0% |
| LDU Quito | 32.8% |
The shortest price of the day
SPAIN: Copa del Rey · 19:00 UTC
Andorra are the biggest favourite on today’s list at 79.7%. In Varea v Andorra, that reads like a formality.
It is not one. At that price, roughly 2 in every ten matches finish another way. The distance between 75% and 90% feels like nothing when you are looking at a short price, and it is the whole difference between a heavy favourite and something close to a certainty.
| Varea | 6.4% |
| Draw | 13.9% |
| Andorra | 79.7% |
Where these numbers come from
A price of 2.00 looks like a 50%% chance. It never is. The bookmaker works out the true probability first, adds their margin, and hands you the marked-up number. The size of that mark-up changes from match to match, which is why two bets that feel identical can cost you very different amounts.
Taking the mark-up back out is the whole job, and the arithmetic is written out in full here. Nothing on this page is a tip, a selection or a forecast: no bet is recommended, no outcome is predicted, and no claim is made that any of it produces a profit. It is the bookmakers’ own view of each match, published without their cut on top.
The full board — every match today, every market, updated through the day — is on the front page, and a fifth of it is free to read without an account.